Dubai’s real estate market in the first quarter of 2026 continued to demonstrate its ability to absorb capital and sustain a high level of transaction value. Yet the defining message of this quarter is not broad-based market growth; it is selective growth. What distinguishes this period from the more accelerated quarters of the past is that the market is moving less uniformly and increasingly in favour of assets, projects, and developers with clearer advantages in location, quality of product, brand strength, and pricing discipline. Any reading that relies only on headline records, without distinguishing between genuine price growth and shifts in the transaction mix, will inevitably miss part of the reality of this quarter.
For the professional investor, this quarter is a reminder that opportunity still exists in the market, but it is no longer distributed evenly across all sub-segments. For managers, organisations, and market advisers, the message is equally clear: in a market where the primary segment remains the main engine, while demand behaviour has become more sensitive to product quality and risk conditions, broad and simplified narratives are no longer sufficient. From this point onward, advantage lies with those who can distinguish between the market’s apparent momentum and its true points of value creation—particularly in a quarter in which geopolitical uncertainty has also entered the market’s decision-making layer, making analytical errors more costly.
This report is based on official data from the Dubai Land Department and Homeland Realty’s internal analysis, and is provided solely for informational purposes and data-driven insight. The contents of this report do not constitute definitive investment advice or a guarantee of returns, and the reader assumes full responsibility for any outcomes arising from its use. We hope this analysis helps you make the best possible decisions in the Dubai real estate market with greater clarity and more rigorous criteria.
In the first quarter of 2026, the market recorded 46,535 transactions and AED 146 billion in sales value. Transaction volume rose 6.0% year on year, but declined 16.9% versus the previous quarter. By contrast, transaction value increased 23.2% year on year and 2.0% quarter on quarter. This divergence points, on the one hand, to the market’s continued strength and, on the other, to a shift in the transaction mix in favour of higher-value assets.
The primary market was the main engine of the quarter. Its share reached 69.9% by volume and 69.8% by value. While primary market value increased 38.9% year on year, the secondary market declined 2.2% in value terms. Alongside this picture, geopolitical risk was the most important external factor affecting how the quarter should be read—a factor that should be interpreted more through uncertainty, operational disruption, and heightened investor sensitivity than as an immediate and definitive effect on every part of the market.
In pricing, the secondary market remains the more reliable reference point for identifying defensible price growth. Median apartment prices in the secondary market reached AED 1,622 per sq ft and median villa prices AED 1,503 per sq ft, up 7.3% and 10.0%, respectively, versus the same period last year. However, from late February and throughout March 2026, the intensification of regional geopolitical risk and Iranian attacks on the UAE made the decision-making environment more cautious—an event that this quarter’s recorded data likely captures only in part.
